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Tag: #ai-timelines3 results

AI Excels at Massive SWE Tasks, Timelines Shorten

AI Excels at Massive SWE Tasks, Timelines Shorten

Author substantially shortens AI timelines after observing AIs excel on massive easy-to-verify software engineering (ES) tasks requiring little ideation. Updated to ~30% chance of full AI R&D automation by EOY 2028. Expects 50% reliability on difficult ESNI tasks with years-to-decades horizons by EOY 2026.

AI Alignment ForumCommunityApr 6#ai-timelines#swe-tasks#automation
Simpler Model Predicts 99% AI R&D Automation by 2032

Simpler Model Predicts 99% AI R&D Automation by 2032

Introduces a robust, 8-parameter model forecasting >99% AI R&D automation by late 2032. Based on conservative compute growth and algorithmic trends, it predicts 1000x-10M x efficiency gains and 300x-3000x research output by 2035. Simpler than AI Futures Model, focusing on timelines to automation without full takeoff.

AI Alignment ForumCommunityFeb 12#research#ai-timelines#simpler-model