Introduces a robust, 8-parameter model forecasting >99% AI R&D automation by late 2032. Based on conservative compute growth and algorithmic trends, it predicts 1000x-10M x efficiency gains and 300x-3000x research output by 2035. Simpler than AI Futures Model, focusing on timelines to automation without full takeoff.
Key Points
- 1.>99% automation median in late 2032
- 2.Massive efficiency boosts by 2035
- 3.Conservative: no 100% automation, Amdahl's law
Impact Analysis
Suggests powerful AI likely on medium timelines even without superhuman research taste. Challenges overly complex models' sensitivity. Urges focus on automation timelines over full ASI takeoff.
Technical Details
8 parameters vs. AIFM's 33; ignores research taste separation and economy feedback. Automation approaches but never hits 100%; uses logistic saturation below full capacity.
