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Simpler Model Predicts 99% AI R&D Automation by 2032

Simpler Model Predicts 99% AI R&D Automation by 2032
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βš–οΈRead original on AI Alignment Forum
#research#ai-timelines#simpler-model#ai-rd#automationai-timelines-modelai-timelines

⚑ 30-Second TL;DR

What Changed

>99% automation median in late 2032

Why It Matters

Suggests powerful AI likely on medium timelines even without superhuman research taste. Challenges overly complex models' sensitivity. Urges focus on automation timelines over full ASI takeoff.

What To Do Next

Evaluate benchmark claims against your own use cases before adoption.

Who should care:Researchers & Academics

Key Points

  • β€’>99% automation median in late 2032
  • β€’Massive efficiency boosts by 2035
  • β€’Conservative: no 100% automation, Amdahl's law
βš–οΈRead original article on AI Alignment Forum
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