Simplified model forecasts 99% AI R&D automation by late 2032 via compute and algo trends. Uses 8 parameters, conservative assumptions like no full automation. Predicts 1000x-10M x efficiency by 2035.
Key Points
- 1.Median >99% automation in 2032
- 2.Robust vs complex AIFM
- 3.Amdahl's law, logistic approach to 100%
Impact Analysis
Medium timelines to powerful AI likely even without superhuman research taste. Informs takeoff expectations.
Technical Details
Based on AI Futures model; ignores research taste separation, economy feedbacks. Saturates below 100% automation.
