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China green certificate prices rise significantly in 2025

Read original on 36氪
#green-energy#sustainability#data-center

Understand the rising energy costs impacting data center operations and AI sustainability goals.

30-Second TL;DR

What Changed

Average GEC price rose from 0.72 yuan (2023) to 5.57 yuan (2025).

Why It Matters

Rising green energy costs will impact the operational expenses of energy-intensive AI data centers, necessitating more efficient compute strategies.

What To Do Next

Factor in rising green energy compliance costs when calculating the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) for large-scale AI model training clusters.

Who should care:Enterprise & Security Teams

Key Points

  • •Average GEC price rose from 0.72 yuan (2023) to 5.57 yuan (2025).
  • •The price increase is driven by high recognition of environmental value.
  • •Market demand for green energy is directly impacting certificate pricing.

Deep Insight

Background and context from public sources — not the original article. 15 sources cited.

Enhanced Key Takeaways

  • •The sharp price increase in 2025 was primarily triggered by new mandatory consumption rules for high-energy-consuming industries (e.g., steel, non-ferrous metals, data centers) introduced by central government in March 2025, requiring them to meet renewable energy targets.
  • •China officially designated GECs as the sole legal proof of renewable electricity attributes in August 2024, leading to the phasing out of international I-REC certificates from the Chinese market by March 2025, thereby consolidating the domestic market.
  • •The global RE100 initiative officially recognized GECs as meeting its technical criteria for credible renewable electricity claims in May 2025, significantly enhancing their international legitimacy and driving demand from multinational corporations for their China operations.
  • •Each GEC represents 1 MWh of renewable electricity, is issued monthly by the National Energy Administration (NEA), has a two-year validity, and can be traded only once on designated national and regional platforms, either bundled with physical electricity or unbundled.

Competitor Analysis

Scope/Coverage
China GEC
All renewable technologies (wind, solar, hydro, biomass, geothermal, marine)
EU Guarantees of Origin (GO)
EU-27 countries, mature market
I-REC Standard (pre-March 2025 in China)
Global, used by multinational companies in China before 2025
Issuing Body
China GEC
National Energy Administration (NEA)
EU Guarantees of Origin (GO)
National issuing bodies in EU member states
I-REC Standard (pre-March 2025 in China)
I-TRACK Foundation (via local issuers)
Trading Platforms
China GEC
National, Beijing, Guangzhou Power Exchange Centers
EU Guarantees of Origin (GO)
Various platforms across 27 countries
I-REC Standard (pre-March 2025 in China)
Various platforms, often through brokers
Validity
China GEC
2 years
EU Guarantees of Origin (GO)
Not specified in search results
I-REC Standard (pre-March 2025 in China)
Not specified in search results
Resaleability
China GEC
Traded only once, then cancelled
EU Guarantees of Origin (GO)
Can be traded further
I-REC Standard (pre-March 2025 in China)
Can be traded further
International Recognition
China GEC
RE100, CDP recognized (since May 2025)
EU Guarantees of Origin (GO)
Widely recognized internationally
I-REC Standard (pre-March 2025 in China)
Widely recognized (CDP, RE100, SBTi)
Typical Price Range (2025)
China GEC
~5.57 yuan/certificate (average 2025), April 2025: 2.31 yuan/cert
EU Guarantees of Origin (GO)
€4-10 (significantly higher than GECs)
I-REC Standard (pre-March 2025 in China)
Varied, but often favored by MNCs for global credibility

Technical Deep Dive

  • One GEC represents 1 MWh (megawatt-hour) of electricity generated from renewable sources.
  • Certificates are issued automatically by the National Energy Administration (NEA) on a monthly basis, based on metered generation data.
  • GECs feature unified numbering and encryption to ensure authenticity and prevent double-counting.
  • Each GEC has a validity period of two years from its generation date.
  • GECs can be traded only once before they must be retired (cancelled) to claim the environmental benefit, preventing resale or reuse.
  • Trading occurs on designated platforms, including the National Green Electricity Certificate Trading Platform, the Beijing Power Exchange Center, and the Guangzhou Power Exchange Center.
  • GECs can be traded either bundled with the physical electricity they represent or unbundled as standalone environmental attributes.
  • The system covers a broad range of renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, conventional hydropower (post-2023 projects), biomass, geothermal, and marine energy.

Future ImplicationsAI analysis grounded in cited sources

The GEC market is expected to achieve a supply-demand balance by 2027, potentially leading to the introduction of financial derivatives.
Analysts predict that as mandatory consumption policies take full effect and demand continues to grow, the market will stabilize, paving the way for advanced financial instruments like GEC futures to manage price risk.
Annual demand for GECs is projected to reach approximately 1.22 billion certificates by 2035.
This significant increase will be driven primarily by compulsory consumption targets for high-energy-consuming industries (estimated 900 million GECs) and rapidly expanding data centers (estimated 320 million GECs).
A tightening of tradable GEC supply may emerge in 2026, potentially exerting further upward pressure on prices.
A new price settlement mechanism introduced in February 2025 for renewable energy projects may absorb a significant share of GECs into a mechanism framework, reducing the volume available for open market transactions.

Timeline

2017-02
GEC Pilot Launch for large wind and PV projects with voluntary trading.
2019-05
Renewable Energy Consumption Guarantee Mechanism introduced, allowing GECs for provincial compliance targets.
2023-08
NEA Document #1044 expanded GEC coverage to all renewable types and designated GECs as the sole legal attribute certificate.
2024-08
GEC Issuance and Trading Rules published, defining 2-year validity, automatic monthly issuance, and one-time trading.
2025-03
Five Ministries' 'Opinions' mandated compulsory renewable consumption for high-energy-consuming industries; I-REC Standard officially exited China.
2025-05
RE100 officially confirmed GECs meet its technical criteria for renewable electricity claims.
Read original article on 36氪

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