Samsung Negotiates $700 HBM4 Prices

• Architecture: Samsung combines 4nm foundry process base die with 10nm-class 6th-generation (1c) DRAM, representing the most advanced pairing in the industry compared to competitors using 12nm foundry and 1b DRAM[4] • Performance Metrics: Achieves 11.7 Gbps standard speed with capability to reach 13 Gbps under optimal conditions, exceeding JEDEC standard of 8 Gbps by 37% and HBM3E's 9.6 Gbps by 22%[4] • Memory Bandwidth: Single-stack bandwidth reaches 3.3 terabytes-per-second, approximately 2.4 times higher than HBM3E predecessor[4] • Stacking Configuration: Currently ships with 12-high stacking for 36 GB capacity; 16-high stacking planned to reach 48 GB[4] • Thermal Management: Enhanced thermal resistance by 10% and heat dissipation by 30% compared to HBM3E[3] • Energy Efficiency: 40% more energy efficient than HBM3E, reducing power consumption and heat generation[3] • Production Yield: Samsung's advanced process nodes (4nm foundry, 1c DRAM) introduce higher production costs and greater yield uncertainty compared to competitors, though Samsung reports HBM4 yield is on track[3][4] • Manufacturing Capacity: Samsung establishing new 1c DRAM production line at P4 factory with planned capacity of 100,000-120,000 wafers per month for HBM[6]

The HBM4 pricing surge to $700 signals a structural shift in semiconductor economics driven by AI infrastructure demand. With both Samsung and SK Hynix projected to achieve record 30 trillion won operating profits in Q1 2026, the memory industry is entering a 'mega cycle' where HBM, DRAM, and NAND prices remain elevated through at least Q3 2026[2][6]. Samsung's first-to-market advantage and superior technical specifications (11.7 Gbps vs. industry standard) position it to capture premium pricing despite smaller market share, while SK Hynix's larger capacity and long-term supply agreements with NVIDIA and Microsoft provide volume stability[7]. The accelerated production timelines at both Samsung (P4 fab completion moved to Q4 2026) and SK Hynix (Yongin Phase 1 trial operations in Feb-Mar 2026) indicate manufacturers are betting heavily on sustained AI-driven demand[6]. NVIDIA's Vera Rubin GPU launch in Q2 2026 will be a critical demand inflection point, as it requires HBM4 from both Samsung and SK Hynix[3]. However, the high production costs and yield risks associated with advanced process nodes (4nm foundry, 1c DRAM) mean profitability gains are concentrated among the two Korean leaders, potentially widening the competitive moat against other memory manufacturers.