๐ญ๐ฐSCMP TechnologyโขRecentcollected in 2m
Hong Kong faces $274B IPO lock-up expiry wave
๐กUnderstand how upcoming IPO lock-up expiries for major AI firms like MiniMax could impact sector liquidity.
โก 30-Second TL;DR
What Changed
US$274 billion in IPO shares are set to unlock over the next year.
Why It Matters
The potential sell-off could impact the valuation and capital availability for AI startups in the region. Founders should prepare for increased market scrutiny and potential liquidity challenges.
What To Do Next
Monitor the stock performance and liquidity of AI-focused IPOs like MiniMax Group to gauge investor sentiment toward the sector.
Who should care:Founders & Product Leaders
๐ง Deep Insight
Web-grounded analysis with 17 cited sources.
๐ Enhanced Key Takeaways
- โขThe anticipated US$274 billion (approximately HK$2.13 trillion) share unlock in Hong Kong over the next 12 months is primarily a consequence of the robust IPO market in 2025, which saw Hong Kong reclaim its position as the world's leading listing destination, raising over HK$280 billion (US$37.22 billion) from 114 new listings.
- โขHistorical data indicates that while lock-up expiries can lead to a moderate decline of 4% to 7% in stock prices within three to six months, strong demand from passive index funds and southbound capital is expected to provide a significant liquidity buffer, potentially mitigating severe selling pressure.
- โขThe peak volume of share unlocks in the Hong Kong stock market for 2026 is projected to occur in September, with shares valued at over HK$410 billion (approximately US$52.5 billion) becoming tradable.
- โขBoth MiniMax Group (00100.HK) and Knowledge Atlas Technology (02513.HK) were included in the Hang Seng Tech Index on June 8, 2026, just ahead of their initial lock-up expiry dates in early July 2026.
- โขKnowledge Atlas Technology is actively pursuing a secondary listing on Shanghai's Nasdaq-style STAR Market to raise an additional 15 billion yuan (US$2.22 billion), more than double its Hong Kong IPO proceeds, highlighting a significant capital-raising drive within China's AI sector.
๐ ๏ธ Technical Deep Dive
- MiniMax Group:
- Develops multimodal AI models and consumer applications, including AI character apps (Talkie, Xingye) and video-generation services (Hailuo AI).
- Its M1 foundational model utilizes a hybrid Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture and a proprietary Lightning Attention mechanism, which reportedly reduces compute requirements by up to 75% compared to models like DeepSeek R1. It also employs a new training method called CISPO, halving the necessary training steps.
- The M2 series models are designed to be agent-centric, optimized for creating and managing AI agents and handling structured coding tasks. The M2 model is an open-source MoE with 229 billion parameters, but only 10 billion are active at any given time for efficiency.
- Knowledge Atlas Technology (formerly Zhipu):
- Provides customized large model-related services through both on-premise and cloud-based deployments.
- Offers subscription-based and usage-based services, including model training and fine-tuning.
- Key products include z.ai, AutoGLM, AutoClaw, ChatGLM, Zread.ai, and AMiner.
- Focuses on foundational model research, with its GLM-4.7 model ranking first domestically and tied for sixth globally with Claude 4.5 Sonnet.
- Strategic technical directions for 2026 include entirely new model architecture design, more generalized Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigms, and exploration into continuous learning and autonomous evolution for models.
๐ฎ Future ImplicationsAI analysis grounded in cited sources
The impending lock-up expiry wave will serve as a critical test for the quality and resilience of AI-related assets listed in Hong Kong.
The concentrated release of shares from numerous AI companies, including major players like MiniMax and Knowledge Atlas, will reveal which firms possess strong fundamentals and investor confidence to withstand potential selling pressure.
Hong Kong's IPO market is poised for continued growth in 2026, particularly in technology and AI sectors.
Forecasts suggest fundraising could reach at least HK$300 billion (US$38.5 billion), driven by ongoing policy support, expanding liquidity, and a robust pipeline of issuers in emerging sectors like AI, clean energy, and healthcare.
Chinese AI firms will increasingly pursue multi-market listings to secure substantial capital for intense R&D and competition.
Knowledge Atlas Technology's rapid move to seek a secondary listing on Shanghai's STAR Market after its Hong Kong IPO underscores the significant capital requirements for developing large AI models and maintaining a competitive edge in computing power and talent.
โณ Timeline
2019
Knowledge Atlas Technology (formerly Beijing Zhipu Huazhang Technology Co., Ltd.) founded.
2021-12
MiniMax Group Inc. founded.
2025
MiniMax Group launches its M1 open-weight foundation model and Hailuo 02 video generation model.
2026-01-08
Knowledge Atlas Technology lists on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Stock Code: 2513).
2026-01-09
MiniMax Group Inc. lists on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Stock Code: 0100).
2026-06-08
Knowledge Atlas Technology and MiniMax Group are included in the Hang Seng Tech Index.
๐ Sources (17)
Factual claims are grounded in the sources below. Forward-looking analysis is AI-generated interpretation.
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Original source: SCMP Technology โ