聚變IPO狂熱超越技術現實

• Magnetized Target Fusion (MTF) Technology: General Fusion's approach compresses magnetized plasma inside a lithium-lined machine to temperatures exceeding the sun's core temperature[1][2] • LM26 Demonstration Machine: Assembled December 2024, achieved first plasma in February 2025, and first plasma compression in April 2025; designed to demonstrate MTF technology in a commercially relevant manner[5] • Liquid Lithium Wall System: The design incorporates a liquid lithium wall that simultaneously shields the fusion vessel, produces tritium fuel through neutron interactions, and captures heat; the liquid metal circulates to a heat exchanger to produce steam for turbine operation[5] • Technical Milestones: General Fusion is targeting fusion reactions at 10 million degrees Celsius, followed by 100-million-degree conditions and scientific breakeven (where LM26 produces more energy than it consumes) by 2028[2][4] • Commercial Viability Timeline: Company plans to complete the LM26 program by mid-2028 and begin operating a first-of-a-kind commercial power plant based on MTF technology by 2035[2]

The fusion sector's resurgence via SPAC transactions reflects investor confidence driven by AI data center power demands, which are expected to consume nearly 300% more electricity by 2035[4]. General Fusion's public listing as the first pure-play fusion company could establish a valuation benchmark for the sector, though the industry faces a critical credibility test: no company has yet achieved continuous, low-cost net power output. The revised 2028 breakeven target (pushed from 2026) suggests technical challenges remain significant[4]. Success by General Fusion or TAE Technologies could accelerate capital flows to fusion startups, but failure to meet milestones could trigger another boom-and-bust cycle similar to previous SPAC waves. The convergence of Trump administration nuclear policies, AI infrastructure demands, and supply chain opportunities (particularly in China for materials) positions fusion as a geopolitical and economic priority through 2030.